Sheinbaum looks minded to take a more proactive foreign policy stance than that of her predecessor
President Claudia Sheinbaum inherited a complex geopolitical landscape upon assuming office in October, which has been further complicated by the return of US President Donald Trump. Recent moves by Sheinbaum suggest potential ambitions to expand on the limited foreign policy interests of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO, 2018-24), who maintained a largely domestically focused stance, and redefine Mexico’s international role. Powerful nationalistic elements nevertheless remain entrenched in Mexican politics.
What next
Subsidiary Impacts
- Sheinbaum’s foreign policy seeks to strengthen consulates, promote voting abroad and support Mexicans living overseas.
- Mexico will try to balance trade diversification and the pursuit of Asian and European investments against angering Trump.
- Sheinbaum’s failure to invite Spain’s King Felipe VI to her inauguration is unlikely in itself to sour broader bilateral relations.
- A change of president in Ecuador this year might foster improved ties, damaged by a raid on Mexico’s Quito embassy last year.
Analysis
AMLO prioritised maintaining a stable relationship with the United States, particularly during Trump’s first term (2017-21), while his interest in Latin America remained sporadic and largely reactive. Although he occasionally made isolated statements or took symbolic action — for example by granting asylum to former Bolivian President Evo Morales following his ouster in 2019 (see BOLIVIA: Fresh elections will be difficult – November 20, 2019) — he generally emphasised internal stability over regional leadership, reflecting his belief that “a good foreign policy is a good domestic policy”.
Sheinbaum may subscribe to a similar philosophy, and won election by presenting herself broadly as a continuity candidate. However, she looks minded to pursue a less inward-looking policy than that of her predecessor.
Trump’s return
Foreign policy under Sheinbaum, and indeed her presidency more generally, looks set to be coloured significantly by her relationship with Trump and her management of his actions and rhetoric towards Mexico. His stated intentions for his second term pose potentially severe challenges, including mass deportations, the possible cancellation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade (USMCA) in the context of its upcoming revision in 2026 and even the threat of a “soft invasion” by US forces targeting organised crime on Mexican soil.
Sheinbaum faces a balancing act in handling Trump
Sheinbaum is already negotiating a balancing act in her responses to Trump, asserting her desire to cooperate and coordinate with Washington while firmly asserting Mexico’s sovereignty. Managing Trump looks set to pose constant challenges that risk distracting Sheinbaum from other matters she may wish to pursue. She nevertheless has a skilled team with whom to share that burden. Key players include:
- Security Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch, who will play a pivotal role in addressing US security concerns and reducing the risk of US encroachment on Mexican territory (see MEXICO: New cabinet promises initial stability – October 2, 2024);
- Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, who will be heavily involved in trade and investment discussions, particularly in the context of USMCA negotiations; and
- Secretary of Agriculture and Rural Development Julio Berdegue, who will also be important in USMCA talks and whose remit covers contentious issues such as Mexico’s reluctance to import transgenic corn (see MEXICO: Farming regulations will strain US trade ties – December 6, 2022).
On migration, the Sheinbaum administration is preparing for the mass deportation to Mexico of thousands of US-based migrants by establishing arrivals centres near the border and putting systems in place to provide returnees with assistance.
Simultaneously, a media campaign is being launched to demonstrate solidarity with the migrants. The Mexican government has long praised migrants as national heroes, given the substantial value of remittances to the Mexican economy (see MEXICO: Remittances will gain greater economic weight – January 24, 2025).
Plan Mexico
On January 13, the government unveiled ‘Plan Mexico’, a public-private sector initiative aimed at promoting national investment, fostering development by enhancing Mexican manufacturing, substituting imports and creating jobs. The plan serves as both an economic blueprint and a preparatory step for the USMCA talks that may help to secure more favourable outcomes.
Key elements include the promotion of nearshoring initiatives and the relaunch of the ‘Made in Mexico’ programme to strengthen domestic production and attract foreign investment (see MEXICO: Sheinbaum will aim to boost FDI – December 19, 2024). Its ambitious objectives include:
- making Mexico one of the ten largest global economies;
- boosting investment; and
- maintaining economic stability with competitive interest rates, controlled inflation and gradual fiscal consolidation.
However, the plan faces challenges, not least convincing the private sector that Mexico remains a secure, viable destination for investment following recent controversial reforms. These include last year’s judicial reform, which introduced elections for judges (see MEXICO: Judicial reform will hit investor confidence – September 17, 2024), the administrative simplification reform, which dissolved autonomous agencies such as the transparency institute, and the restructuring of key regulatory bodies overseeing economic competition and telecommunications.
Such concerns may pose as much, if not more, of an issue to some investors as Trump’s tariff threats. As such, addressing them will be crucial in ensuring Plan Mexico’s success and Mexico’s long-term economic competitiveness.
G20
Mexico’s participation in the G20 has been sporadic in recent years. Before Sheinbaum, the last Mexican president to attend a summit in person was President Enrique Pena Nieto, who travelled to Buenos Aires in 2018. AMLO attended only once, virtually, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. On other occasions, senior cabinet members have represented Mexico.
Sheinbaum’s attendance last year signalled a departure from AMLO’s foreign policy approach. In her speech, she proposed reallocating 1% of global military spending to fund the largest reforestation initiative in history, setting out a vision of “a non-violent, poverty-fighting, ecological leftist nation.”
Her credibility in championing that vision will depend in no small part on the example she sets in managing Mexico’s own challenges with poverty, insecurity and environmentalism. Rampant cartel violence, an ongoing commitment to propping up the world’s most indebted state-owned oil company and support for environmentally damaging infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train look likely to undermine her image (see MEXICO: Chiapas violence looks likely to endure – September 20, 2024 and see MEXICO: Pemex poses challenges despite new oil plan – November 19, 2024 and see MEXICO: Maya Train poses major challenges – August 15, 2019).
Her leadership at the G20 nevertheless underscored her potential as a prominent global voice and gave her an early opportunity to assert herself on the international stage.
Venezuela
Mexico’s response to the electoral fraud allegations surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s recent re-election (see VENEZUELA: Disputed election leaves uncertain future – August 7, 2024) reflects Sheinbaum’s nuanced and carefully calibrated approach to foreign policy.
Mexico has been a consistent and credible intermediary between Maduro’s government and the Venezuelan opposition. Notably, Mexico hosted negotiations between the opposition and Maduro’s government from 2021 to 2023. The results of such efforts have been less than optimal from Mexico’s perspective — the objective of free and fair elections has not been met and the talks have lost steam. They nevertheless provide an indicator of the sort of international role Sheinbaum might pursue elsewhere.
Consistent with Mexico’s longstanding tradition of non-intervention and adherence to the principle of self-determination, Sheinbaum has repeatedly emphasised that resolving Venezuela’s electoral conflict is a matter for Venezuelans alone — a stance that aligns with Mexico’s broader foreign policy doctrine of respecting national sovereignty while fostering dialogue.
By positioning Mexico as a neutral facilitator, rather than a foreign meddler, Sheinbaum will aim to reinforce Mexico’s image as a stabilising force that can play a key role in addressing regional political crises should the necessity/opportunity arise.
Sheinbaum attends the launch of the Task Force for a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, on the sidelines of the G20 Rio de Janeiro summit (ERIC LEE/POOL/AFP/Getty Images)
Authored by:
Philip Paterson
Senior Analyst,
Latin America
